Hurricane season is just right around the corner for the Atlantic. That is leaving many folks with questions about what’s in store in the tropics here in 2021? Will it be a repeat of 2020? Will it be quieter?
Colorado State University (CSU) released their 2021 hurricane season outlook this week and the answers to those questions might not be exactly what we here on the coast want to hear.
Forecasters are once again predicting an above average hurricane season this year. The main reasoning for this prediction is the likely absence of El Niño. Other factors include near-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and much warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
There is nearly a 70% chance of a major hurricane striking somewhere along the U.S. coast, a 45% for just the East Coast and a 44% chance for just the Gulf Coast.
Current data shows that those numbers are above the normal values of 52%, 31% and 30%.
Just to be clear, it’s impossible to say where exactly this year’s storms will end up, and while we need to start getting prepared, there is no need to become panicked. There’s no correlation between the number of storms to form and the number of direct U.S. impacts.